2016년 10월 31일 월요일

Lead & Lag Indicators and the Podcast Industry

There have been some good discussions on the Hotpod paid members forum looking at all of the channels for revenue generation available to podcasters. Over the past year or so live shows seem to have really become a very interesting new mode and expression of fan engagement that also serves as a healthy and robust means of generating revenue for many shows. A fellow member @mijustin provided some great food for thought on high- and low-impact advertising

To this outsider it seems that advertising via podcasts (when done right of course) could also highlight a third potential categorization: hyper-purchase intent. I would define this sort of advertising as that which targets those high-intent listeners with products or services that are both relatively novel and obviously within the semiosphere of the subject or topic of the podcast (episode) at hand, but not something that was directly searched for ahead of time. Case in point, these days I've taken a keen interest in several podcasts like 'Epicenter Bitcoin' and 'The Bitcoin Show' that discuss cryptocurrencies (e.g. bitcoin, ethereum). People curious about cryptocurrencies will find these shows. And when they do they will hear ads hyper-directed towards them about digital wallets to put any funds they purchase in like the jaxx wallet (jaxx.io) or digital currency escrow services like escrowmybits.com and others that they may have not have thought about before, but upon hearing will be (more) apt to check out and maybe consume.

Over and above the discussion of advertising though, I was reminded of terms that are popular with Q-HSE experts in the construction industry and how they may be applied and used by podcasters. Of course - but of course - I am talking about lead and lag indicators. Lag indicators, when used on infrastructure projects, are things like manhours without an accident, or simply the number of fatalities or injuries. They are retrospective metrics that are important yesterday. Their assumed importance for tomorrow's decision making cannot be understated either, however, their actual predictive value is quite low. Thus if decision making is made based largely on such lag indicators things can get obfuscated pretty quickly. For example, after someone dies on a project there is usually a push to highlight every potential hazard on-site, so every single near-miss (incident) is recorded. As a result, from one day to the next you go from what looked like a relatively safe site to a death trap without any clarity on where "the real" trouble areas are. Rankings, CPM-rates and clarity on other podcast metrics that I and most others have been calling for fall into the lagging indicator category. Since these measurements are still in the process of being standardized as they relate to the audio on-demand sector, I think most of us have felt it sufficient to chase the rabbit down the fly trap so to speak as it relates to forecasting how we think things will settle for these indicators.

But don't we already know how things will turn out if we only focus on lag indicators? A few powers will settle (if they haven't settled already) on standardized metrics and we will have top-50 or top-100 list of shows that will take a large portion of the pie. The flip side of lag indicators are what's called 'lead indicators' or positive performance indicators. In construction these indicators manifest themselves in things like educations and trainings. Interestingly enough they also seem to have already appeared in podcasting in the form of live shows. A more developed - but still directly related - form is the traveling tour version of these live shows. Direct support via Patreon campaigns or simple fan to producer payments using bitcoin/ethereum are additional examples of lead indicators that are simply unaccounted for in traditional lag indicators. What is incredibly interesting is that lead indicators in podcasting, in addition to being great signals of a shows continued future success based on direct audience support, is that they clearly demonstrate a direct relation with bottom line growth.

Heading forward it would behoove those involved with producing on-demand audio to develop and standardize more leading indicators, sharing best practices along the way. This way content creators and owners of content can better understand that their active role is integral to the success of their work - their role simply doesn't stop after producing a show - while pulling on the availability of useful lag indicators to help keep everyone honest and on their toes while innovating forward, without being beholden to such metrics as the ultimate measure of what defines a shows success and profit or failure.