Negotiations & History

In less than 3 hours the meeting between Trump and Kim will go down.

For those with short memories, journalists and North Korean experts were up in arms a few short weeks back after Trump "canceled" negotiations. The furor they raised just confirmed how little they (or really most people for that matter) know about negotiations. Negotiations are never over until they are over, and while parties may kick and scream during negotiations, when the ink dries on a final, signed agreement everything except what has been agreed upon is forgotten.

Despite the negotiations pushing ahead and even after the summit was declared on again, you have a bunch of ideologues criticizing the whole meeting citing past North Korean atrocities as evidence that the US is negotiating not just with a terrorist but a war criminal. 

Everyone knows North Korea has been a shitty place to live, and some people were really fucked over. You can also say the same thing about really any group or nation throughout history, including the US and South Korea. But the key things to look out for are the moments when things may change and benefit a huge swathe or group of people.

The meeting between Trump and Kim may be one of those moments, but also it may not be. That said, directionally they are heading towards one of those moments where the past of North Korea will be (largely) forgotten so that a future can be opened up where many more people than were fucked over in the past can benefit. That is how history, thought broadly, is written.

So, to summarize: Negotiations are finalized when participants agree to do one thing or a set of things while forgetting everything else in much the same way that history is written about one thing or a set of things while omitting everything else. When you see people only focusing on the "everything else" on Twitter or on the news or at the bar, ask them why they are focusing on everything else.

Analogies, Irony and Paradoxes

The best way to illuminate the present is through the past using analogies.

Irony makes history a worthy subject of study.

Paradoxes, in addition to irony, are something that a good historian should always be on the lookout for.

 ~ Niall Ferguson on Waking Up with Sam Harris

The Brain Drain of the Korean War

I just started to re-read Son Jung-mok's five volume magnum opus 'The Story of Seoul's Urban Planning' the other day.

Part of the reason I wanted to re-read these books is because a single reading is simply not enough time to absorb all of the facts, figures and history contained in this collection that details Seoul's rapid development in the 50 year period following the Korean War.

It's my hope that over the course of my re-reading I can share some lesser known history with my dear readers, starting from today.

Most casual observers of history know that the Korean War was bloody and destructive. Enormous number of soldiers and civilians died as a result of the war. Seoul was destroyed - over 30% of buildings from personal homes and schools to banks and government buildings were obliterated either from bombing, fire or a combination of the two.

At the outset of war, Seoul had a population of around 1.5 million, 1.4 million of which resided north of the Han River. After North Korea attacked, 400,000 citizens immediately fled by crossing the Han and heading south. By December of 1950 that number increased to 800,000.

Over 95,000 Seoulites (i.e. non-military civilians) were lost between 4 am on 25 June 1950 until the armistice was signed nearly three years later on 27 July 1953.

The term 'lost' includes casualties as well as those who were slaughtered, abducted, and unaccounted for. There were 29,628 civilian casualties; 8,800 Seoul citizens who were slaughtered; and 20,738 civilians who were kidnapped by the North Koreans.

Before reading this work, I never heard or thought about any potential abductions, so after seeing that stat I was immediately curious who was targeted. It shouldn't have come as a surprise that the elites of South Korean society were the main targets of  the abductions: university professors, doctors, lawyers, judges, prosecutors, businessmen, and journalists occupy a large portion of the list of those who were abducted.

It didn't help that the elites were clustered in the Jongro and Central districts of Seoul. But it is mind blowing to think that over 32% of all lawyers (there were barely 100 lawyers at the time) in South Korea were abducted at once, literally overnight, by the North Koreans never to be seen again.

That fact makes the story of South Koreas rapid development after the war all the more amazing. And goes to show that "ordinary" people can accomplish outsized results.